Arsenal Tulavs
Spartak Kostroma
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 10/9/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Kostroma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arsenal Tula 0-1 Spartak Kostroma, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Tula 3-2 Spartak Kostroma
Original prediction
Spartak Kostroma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.1% | 23.4% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.8% | 27.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.1% | 49.6% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.5 pts
Projected Score
Arsenal Tula 0–1 Spartak Kostroma
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Kostroma
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Spartak Kostroma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40