Aroucavs
Santa Clara
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arouca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara
Original prediction
Arouca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 36.2% | 35.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 30.7% | 29.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 33.1% | 35.3% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Arouca
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Arouca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AroucaDWLWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Santa ClaraWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AroucaSanta Clara
46.7Attack60.0
80.0Defence80.0
66.7Form73.3
64.5Power71.4
1.10xG1.11