Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arouca · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arouca 2-1 Maritimo
Original prediction
Arouca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 43.2% | 40.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 29.0% | 28.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 27.8% | 31.5% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Arouca
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Arouca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AroucaLWWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
MaritimoDWWDD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AroucaMaritimo
55.6Attack55.6
77.8Defence66.7
66.7Form77.8
65.1Power70.7
1.38xG1.17