Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arouca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arouca 1-0 Estrela
Original prediction
Arouca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 43.6% | 46.4% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.7% | 25.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 28.7% | 28.0% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Arouca
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Arouca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AroucaDLDWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EstrelaLDWDW
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AroucaEstrela
47.6Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
52.4Form47.6
56.0Power52.2
1.89xG1.24