Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arkadag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arkadag 1-0 Muharraq
Original prediction
Arkadag
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 33.0% | 43.2% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.2% | 27.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 36.8% | 29.5% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Arkadag
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Arkadag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArkadagWWWWW
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MuharraqWLDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ArkadagMuharraq
100.0Attack44.4
100.0Defence55.6
100.0Form38.9
97.0Power46.2
1.91xG1.10