Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arezzo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arezzo 1-4 Sudtirol
Original prediction
Arezzo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 41.9% | 39.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 30.5% | 30.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.7% | 30.8% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Arezzo
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Arezzo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArezzoWLLWL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SudtirolLDWDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
ArezzoSudtirol
50.0Attack40.4
50.0Defence57.9
50.0Form41.2
50.0Power48.6
1.25xG1.00