Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arezzo 2-3 Palermo
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.56 | 26.2% | 33.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.5% | 28.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 45.3% | 38.0% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArezzoWLWDL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PalermoWWLWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ArezzoPalermo
50.0Attack52.8
50.0Defence54.5
50.0Form48.0
50.0Power53.2
1.34xG1.33