Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cremonese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arezzo 0-0 Cremonese
Original prediction
Cremonese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.27 | 28.6% | 33.5% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.9% | 27.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 41.5% | 38.8% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Cremonese
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Cremonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArezzoLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CremoneseWWDDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArezzoCremonese
40.0Attack33.3
13.3Defence53.3
40.0Form33.3
34.7Power41.8
1.28xG1.35