Aretxabaletavs
Pasaia KE
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/11/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aretxabaleta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aretxabaleta 4-2 Pasaia KE
Original prediction
Aretxabaleta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.6% | 37.6% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.1% | 26.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.3% | 35.5% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Aretxabaleta
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Aretxabaleta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00