Aretxabaletavs
Derio
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · 9/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aretxabaleta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aretxabaleta 1-2 Derio
Original prediction
Aretxabaleta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.4% | 37.0% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.5% | 28.6% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.1% | 34.3% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aretxabaleta
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Aretxabaleta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.50