Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arbroath · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arbroath 0-0 Morton, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arbroath 1-2 Morton
Original prediction
Arbroath
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 51.3% | 43.6% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.2% | 30.3% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.4% | 26.1% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Projected Score
Arbroath 0–0 Morton
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Arbroath
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Arbroath has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArbroathLWLLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MortonLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArbroathMorton
22.2Attack18.5
51.9Defence37.0
40.7Form3.7
41.3Power23.7
1.13xG0.66