Anconavs
Fossombrone
COMPLETEDItaly · Coppa Italia Serie D · 10/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ancona · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ancona 1-1 Fossombrone
Original prediction
Ancona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.1% | 43.1% | -16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.4% | 28.0% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 5.14 | 17.5% | 29.0% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Ancona
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Ancona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40