Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Braga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alverca 1-2 SC Braga
Original prediction
SC Braga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.70 | 20.0% | 26.6% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.8% | 27.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 53.2% | 46.2% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
SC Braga
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
SC Braga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlvercaDLDLW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SC BragaWDWDD
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AlvercaSC Braga
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence66.7
16.7Form66.7
31.3Power64.8
1.09xG1.62