Alvercavs
Santa Clara
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 8/29/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Clara · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara
Original prediction
Santa Clara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 34.9% | 28.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 31.2% | 27.6% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 33.9% | 43.4% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Santa Clara
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Santa Clara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60