Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alverca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alverca 1-0 Rio Ave
Original prediction
Alverca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 48.0% | 53.1% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.4% | 23.9% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.80 | 24.6% | 23.0% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Alverca
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Alverca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlvercaWLDLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Rio AveDLLWL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
AlvercaRio Ave
44.4Attack27.8
38.9Defence22.2
27.8Form22.2
39.2Power27.1
1.99xG1.06