Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arouca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alverca 0-1 Arouca
Original prediction
Arouca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.7% | 35.4% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.7% | 28.7% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 27.6% | 35.9% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Arouca
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Arouca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlvercaLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AroucaWWDLD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlvercaArouca
54.2Attack45.8
50.0Defence70.8
45.8Form58.3
51.0Power59.2
1.09xG1.29