Alloa Athleticvs
Hibernian U21
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alloa Athletic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alloa Athletic 4-1 Hibernian U21
Original prediction
Alloa Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 82.0% | 63.4% | -18.6 pts |
| Draw | 7.72 | 11.8% | 19.5% | 7.8 pts |
| Away | 14.47 | 6.3% | 17.1% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Alloa Athletic
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Alloa Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20