Alloa Athleticvs
Gala Fairydean Rovers
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alloa Athletic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alloa Athletic 2-2 Gala Fairydean Rovers
Original prediction
Alloa Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 85.7% | 72.1% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 9.39 | 9.7% | 15.5% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 19.61 | 4.6% | 12.3% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 8.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Alloa Athletic
Probability
72.1%
Model confidence
72.1%
Alloa Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40