Alianza Limavs
Deportivo Garcilaso
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 8/30/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Lima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza Lima 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Lima 0-1 Deportivo Garcilaso
Original prediction
Alianza Lima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 70.4% | 57.4% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.7% | 26.4% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 10.40 | 8.9% | 16.2% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Projected Score
Alianza Lima 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Lima
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Alianza Lima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40