Alianza Atleticovs
Universitario
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Universitario · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Atletico 1-4 Universitario
Original prediction
Universitario
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 31.7% | 35.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.9% | 26.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.4% | 38.4% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Universitario
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Universitario has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20