Alebrijes de Oaxacavs
Tapatío
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/28/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Tapatío
Original prediction
Tapatío
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 33.7% | 29.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.8% | 26.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.5% | 44.5% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40