Alebrijes de Oaxacavs
Durango
SCHEDULEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Durango are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Durango hold an 8.4-point power-rating edge (46.7 v 55.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.50/1.25