Alebrijes de Oaxacavs
Correcaminos Uat
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Correcaminos Uat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 Correcaminos Uat
Original prediction
Correcaminos Uat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.19 | 21.9% | 16.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.3% | 19.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 55.8% | 64.9% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Correcaminos Uat
Probability
64.9%
Model confidence
64.9%
Correcaminos Uat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80