Alebrijes de Oaxacavs
CA La Paz
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/25/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-3 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-3 CA La Paz
Original prediction
CA La Paz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.0% | 14.8% | -14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.3% | 19.1% | -7.2 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.6% | 66.1% | 21.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–311%
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
66.1%
Model confidence
66.1%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00