Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albion FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Albion FC 1-0 Progreso, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Albion FC 0-1 Progreso
Original prediction
Albion FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.8% | 58.3% | 13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.4% | 25.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 26.8% | 16.2% | -10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Projected Score
Albion FC 1–0 Progreso
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Albion FC
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Albion FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Albion FCLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ProgresoWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Albion FCProgreso
44.9Attack24.4
60.3Defence51.3
43.6Form24.4
50.9Power36.5
1.47xG0.52