Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Waab · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Waab 1-1 Qatar U23
Original prediction
Al Waab
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.3% | 47.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.3% | 26.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.4% | 25.8% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Al Waab
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Al Waab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al WaabWWLDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Qatar U23LDDLW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Al WaabQatar U23
50.0Attack16.7
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form16.7
86.5Power31.3
1.75xG0.91