Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEOM · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al-Shabab 3-1 NEOM
Original prediction
NEOM
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.69 | 15.6% | 25.9% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 20.7% | 24.0% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 63.8% | 50.1% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
NEOM
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
NEOM has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al-ShababWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
NEOMWLLWD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Al-ShababNEOM
0.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power97.0
1.59xG2.38