Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Nasr · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Nasr 3-0 Al Riffa
Original prediction
Al Nasr
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 56.4% | 42.8% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.2% | 27.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.83 | 18.4% | 29.4% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al Nasr
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Al Nasr has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Al NasrWDWDL
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Al RiffaDDWWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Al NasrAl Riffa
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24