Al Mesaimeervs
Al-Gharafa B
COMPLETEDQatar · Second Division · 10/14/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Mesaimeer · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Al Mesaimeer 5-0 Al-Gharafa B
Original prediction
Al Mesaimeer
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 52.3% | 47.6% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.5% | 26.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 23.2% | 25.7% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Al Mesaimeer
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Al Mesaimeer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.33/1.67