Airdrie Unitedvs
St. Mirren U21
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Airdrie United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Airdrie United 1-0 St. Mirren U21
Original prediction
Airdrie United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.5% | 40.2% | -21.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.59 | 19.8% | 23.8% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.85 | 18.7% | 36.1% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Airdrie United
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Airdrie United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20