Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Ahal are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Merw are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 42.8-point power-rating edge (69.8 v 27.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.0% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 91% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
90.6%
Model confidence
16.0%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20