Accrington STvs
Grimsby
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Accrington ST 2-2 Grimsby
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 26.6% | 29.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 27.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 46.8% | 43.1% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Accrington STLLDLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GrimsbyDDWLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Accrington STGrimsby
44.4Attack33.3
22.2Defence77.8
11.1Form55.6
29.5Power59.1
1.10xG1.45