Accrington STvs
Gillingham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gillingham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Accrington ST 3-1 Gillingham
Original prediction
Gillingham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 39.8% | 29.4% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.4% | 26.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.8% | 44.2% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Gillingham
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Gillingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20