Accrington STvs
Cheltenham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Accrington ST 2-0 Cheltenham
Original prediction
Cheltenham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 40.3% | 32.8% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.9% | 27.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.8% | 39.4% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Cheltenham
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40