Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Milan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AC Milan 2-0 Venezia
Original prediction
AC Milan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 65.1% | 51.4% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.49 | 21.1% | 25.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 6.93 | 13.7% | 22.9% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
AC Milan
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
AC Milan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AC MilanWWLDD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
VeneziaLWDLW
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AC MilanVenezia
66.7Attack0.0
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power15.3
1.72xG0.92