Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Milan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
Original prediction
AC Milan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 75.8% | 57.1% | -18.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.95 | 16.0% | 22.8% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 11.59 | 8.2% | 20.1% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
AC Milan
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
AC Milan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AC MilanLDDWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LecceWLLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AC MilanLecce
58.3Attack41.7
66.7Defence41.7
66.7Form50.0
66.3Power46.3
1.80xG0.97