Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Milan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta
Original prediction
AC Milan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 54.1% | 54.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.8% | 24.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 21.1% | 21.4% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
AC Milan
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
AC Milan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AC MilanWDWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AtalantaWWLLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AC MilanAtalanta
61.1Attack44.4
72.2Defence55.6
66.7Form50.0
67.7Power52.2
1.69xG0.84