Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aarau W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 3.40 conceded, while Basel W are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (13.2 v 86.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.5% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 17 · avg 0.40/3.40
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60