Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aarau W 3-1 Basel W
Original prediction
Basel W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 04:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aarau WLLLDL
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Basel WLDDDW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Aarau WBasel W
29.2Attack50.0
0.0Defence58.3
4.2Form50.0
14.3Power55.1
0.87xG2.56