GGOALVIO

Goalvio Match Preview

Quindio hold the model edge as Real Cundinamarca bring encouraging recent form

Quindio enter this Primera B fixture with the stronger statistical profile, although Real Cundinamarca’s recent results add an important counterpoint. The model gives Quindio a 44.73% win probability, compared with 21.66% for Real Cundinamarca, while the draw probability is 33.61%. Quindio are third in the standings with 51 points from 29 matches, whereas Real Cundinamarca are 11th with 27 points from 23 matches. The ratings also favour Quindio, whose Power Rating is 59.9 compared with Real Cundinamarca’s 48.0, alongside a higher Elo of 1040 against 992. However, Real Cundinamarca have won three of their last five matches and scored 10 goals in that sequence. Quindio remain unbeaten across their last five, with two wins and three draws, while conceding three goals. The match carries a 25.51% BTTS probability and a 17.19% Over 2.5 probability. Expected goals are 0.53 for Real Cundinamarca and 0.89 for Quindio, pointing toward a controlled, low-scoring contest.

Key edge

The clearest projected separator is Quindio’s defensive profile and lower expected-goals concession rate: Quindio have conceded three goals across their last five, compared with five for Real Cundinamarca, while the model assigns Quindio 0.89 expected goals against 0.53 for Real Cundinamarca.

Biggest risk

Quindio’s model edge could be reduced by Real Cundinamarca’s recent attacking output. Real Cundinamarca have won three of their last five and scored 10 goals, while the draw probability stands at 33.61%, making a narrow or level contest plausible.

Expected match shape

The projections point to a measured, low-scoring match. The match has a 25.51% BTTS probability and a 17.19% Over 2.5 probability, with expected goals of 0.53 for Real Cundinamarca and 0.89 for Quindio.

Goalvio modelHome 21.7%Draw 33.6%Away 44.7%

Match finished

  1. Real CundinamarcaTimeQuindio
  2. Full time
    1. 90+6'Yellow CardYellow Card
    1. J. AmayaSubstitution 580'
    1. Yellow CardYellow Card73'
    1. Y. ValenciaNormal Goal68'
    2. Yellow CardYellow Card68'
    1. C. RiosSubstitution 464'
    2. K. CuellarSubstitution 364'
    3. K. VidalSubstitution 264'
    1. 60'Yellow CardYellow Card
    1. 54'Y. TorresNormal Goal
    1. O. AcostaSubstitution 146'
  3. HT
    1. 39'Yellow CardYellow Card
    1. J. AmayaNormal Goal35'
    1. 34'Yellow CardYellow Card
    1. J. AmayaYellow Card23'
    1. C. RiosNormal Goal14'

Home Team

Real Cundinamarca

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Away Team

Quindio

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League

Primera B

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