Sun 20 Sept, 19:30
COMPLETED
Goalvio Match Preview
Hércules hold the model edge, but the statistical picture remains finely balanced
Hércules are rated as the more likely winner, with a 45.02% home-win probability compared with 25.83% for Juventud Torremolinos; the draw probability is 29.15%. The model also projects 1.11 expected goals for Hércules and 0.77 for Juventud Torremolinos, pointing to a controlled scoring outlook rather than an open contest. Recent results are mixed for both sides: Hércules have a last-five sequence of LLDDW, while Juventud Torremolinos show LDWDL. Their recent five-match records each contain one win, two draws and two losses. The standings are similarly close, with Hércules 16th on 3 points and Juventud Torremolinos 17th on 1 point after 3 matches. However, the rating data introduces a notable counterweight to the home-win selection: Juventud Torremolinos have a 47.0 Power Rating and 988 Elo, compared with 15.3 and 861 for Hércules. Overall, the prediction favours Hércules, but the draw probability and contrasting rating profiles make this a cautious home-leaning assessment.
Key edge
The model’s expected-goals split gives Hércules 1.11 expected goals and Juventud Torremolinos 0.77. That projection is the clearest statistical support for the home side, while the 28.96% Over 2.5 probability points toward a restrained scoring environment.
Biggest risk
Hércules are the model favourite, but their 45.02% home-win probability leaves substantial room for another result. The draw is rated at 29.15%, and Juventud Torremolinos have the stronger supplied Power Rating and Elo, creating a clear statistical challenge to the home selection.
Expected match shape
The supplied numbers indicate a controlled match with Hércules holding the stronger projected scoring position. BTTS is rated at 37.27%, while Over 2.5 has a 28.96% probability. The expected-goals outlook is 1.11 for Hércules and 0.77 for Juventud Torremolinos.
Match finished
- HérculesTimeJuventud Torremolinos
- Full time
- Y. CanteroSubstitution 581'
- M. RicoSubstitution 481'
- AntoninSubstitution 381'
- 80'R. Ajegun PerezSubstitution 5
- 80'W. KaptoumSubstitution 4
- M. RicoYellow Card78'
- 72'M. DiabySubstitution 3
- A. EscuderoSubstitution 272'
- 72'I. DorguSubstitution 2
- A. JimenezSubstitution 164'
- 63'D. MoubekeSubstitution 1
- Goal Disallowed - video reviewGoal Disallowed - video review57'
- 53'C. RodriguezYellow Card
- S. VazquezNormal Goal51'
- HT
- 40'DioniYellow Card
- 15'M. DiabyYellow Card