Goalvio Match Preview
Criciuma hold the model edge in a low-scoring Serie B preview
Criciuma are rated as the stronger side, but the model projects a competitive and potentially cautious contest against Operario-PR. Criciuma have a 46.85% home-win probability, while the draw probability is 32.03% and the away-win probability is 21.12%. The expected-goals outlook also favours Criciuma, with 0.97 home expected goals compared with 0.56 for Operario-PR. The match has a 27.9% BTTS probability and a 19.95% Over 2.5 probability, pointing towards limited scoring potential. Criciuma’s season record places them fifth with 47 points from 28 matches, including eight wins in 14 home matches. Operario-PR are eighth with 44 points, while their broader record includes 12 wins and eight draws. Recent five-match records are less convincing for both sides: Criciuma’s supplied sequence is LLDWL, while Operario-PR’s is DDLLL. The ratings remain relatively close, with Criciuma at 55.5 and Operario-PR at 53.6, so the home advantage is meaningful but not overwhelming. The key question is whether Criciuma’s stronger home profile can decide a match that the model expects to stay tight.
Key edge
Criciuma’s home record is the clearest supporting signal, with eight wins from 14 home matches and 28 home points. That advantage aligns with the model’s 46.85% home-win probability.
Biggest risk
Criciuma are favoured, but the preference is not decisive. The draw probability is 32.03%, the ratings are close at 55.5 for Criciuma and 53.6 for Operario-PR, and both recent five-match sequences contain three losses.
Expected match shape
The model points to a contained match with limited scoring opportunities. Criciuma have the stronger result probability and home record, while the low BTTS and Over 2.5 probabilities indicate that a narrow margin or draw is more consistent with the statistical outlook than an open contest.
Match finished
- CriciumaTimeOperario-PR
- 90+9'Emaxwell Souza de LimaVar
- 90+6'Emaxwell Souza de LimaNormal Goal
- 89'Gabriel Feliciano da SilvaSubstitution 5
- Yuri JonathanYellow Card85'
- Fellipe MateusSubstitution 582'
- 80'Ángel TorresSubstitution 4
- Marcelo HermesYellow Card80'
- 72'Hildeberto PereiraSubstitution 3
- 72'Vinícius Diniz Dall AntoniaSubstitution 2
- Jhonata Robert Alves da SilvaSubstitution 470'
- WaguininhoSubstitution 365'
- Nicolas Godinho JohannSubstitution 265'
- 45'Mikael DokaSubstitution 1
- Rodrigo FagundesSubstitution 145'
- WaguininhoYellow Card45'
- HT
- 45+5'Jose Abad Cuenu RodriguezYellow Card
- 38'Caio DantasNormal Goal
- 36'JosephYellow Card