Zvezda St. Petersburgvs
Tver
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tver · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-8 Tver
Original prediction
Tver
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 34.3% | 33.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.4% | 29.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.3% | 36.9% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Tver
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Tver has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40