Zvezda St. Petersburgvs
Cherepovets
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 10/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zvezda St. Petersburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-0 Cherepovets
Original prediction
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 39.5% | 36.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.9% | 28.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.6% | 34.6% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Zvezda St. Petersburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60