Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paradiso · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zürich II 1-3 Paradiso
Original prediction
Paradiso
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 35.4% | 30.2% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.4% | 23.0% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.2% | 46.9% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Paradiso
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Paradiso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Zürich IILWWWD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ParadisoWWDLW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Zürich IIParadiso
55.6Attack77.8
38.9Defence61.1
55.6Form55.6
51.9Power63.0
1.55xG2.24