II Liga - EastII Liga - East
Friday, 31 July 202617:00Updated today
Znicz Pruszków

Znicz Pruszków

Home
W
vs
17:00
Legia Warszawa II

Legia Warszawa II

Away
W
Stadion MZOS Znicz
GoalVio prediction
54% confidence
Znicz Pruszków(54%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Znicz Pruszków
54%
Draw
26%
Legia Warszawa II
20%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Znicz Pruszków
94
Legia Warszawa II
99
Defence
Znicz Pruszków
27
Legia Warszawa II
66
Momentum
Znicz Pruszków
100
Legia Warszawa II
100
Danger (xG)
Znicz Pruszków
2.70
Legia Warszawa II
3.60
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.89 xG for Znicz Pruszków and 0.87 xG for Legia Warszawa II. Legia Warszawa II's projected xG of 0.87 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.77 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.

xG for (Znicz Pruszków)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Legia Warszawa II)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (Znicz Pruszków)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Legia Warszawa II)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków
WW
Legia Warszawa IILegia Warszawa II
WWW

Probability breakdown

54% confidence
Znicz Pruszków54%
Draw26%
Legia Warszawa II20%

Znicz Pruszków leads with 54% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Znicz Pruszków Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Znicz Pruszków take on Legia Warszawa II in II Liga - East.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.89 expected goals for Znicz Pruszków against 0.87 for Legia Warszawa II — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Znicz Pruszków's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Legia Warszawa II have won 2 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Znicz Pruszków carry the stronger underlying metrics, Legia Warszawa II's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Znicz Pruszków are generating a commanding xG advantage — 1.89 projected against 0.87 for Legia Warszawa II. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.02 is the clearest signal in the model that Znicz Pruszków are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Znicz Pruszków's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Legia Warszawa II defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Znicz Pruszków fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Znicz Pruszków

Znicz Pruszków

W
vs Polonia Warszawa
27 Jun 2026
32
W
@ Chrobry Głogów
16 May 2026
21
Legia Warszawa II

Legia Warszawa II

W
vs Barycz Sułów
8 Jul 2026
41
W
@ Broń Radom
17 May 2026
10
W
vs Wikielec
13 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Znicz Pruszków vs Legia Warszawa II?

GoalVio's model predicts Znicz Pruszków to win with 54% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Znicz Pruszków vs Legia Warszawa II?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Znicz Pruszków vs Legia Warszawa II?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Znicz Pruszków vs Legia Warszawa II?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more