Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zira · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zira 3-2 Sumqayıt
Original prediction
Zira
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 53.8% | 42.8% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 27.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 19.7% | 30.2% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Zira
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Zira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZiraDDLDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
SumqayıtWWDDL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
ZiraSumqayıt
37.5Attack47.6
58.3Defence52.4
50.0Form38.1
49.8Power47.2
1.21xG1.08