Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zira 1-1 Qarabag
Original prediction
Qarabag
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.26 | 27.7% | 35.5% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.6% | 28.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 45.7% | 36.5% | -9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZiraLWWWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
QarabagWWLWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ZiraQarabag
100.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power83.3
1.38xG1.21