Ziravs
Neftchi Baku
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · 8/30/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zira · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zira 1-0 Neftchi Baku
Original prediction
Zira
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.8% | 37.8% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.6% | 29.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 36.5% | 33.0% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Zira
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Zira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZiraWWDLW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Neftchi BakuWWWLL
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ZiraNeftchi Baku
100.0Attack47.2
66.7Defence63.0
100.0Form51.9
88.7Power54.5
1.30xG1.04