Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zira · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zira 1-1 Şamaxı FK
Original prediction
Zira
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 51.3% | 38.0% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.7% | 28.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.32 | 21.0% | 33.4% | 12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Zira
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Zira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZiraLDLWW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Şamaxı FKWDWDD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZiraŞamaxı FK
38.9Attack44.4
55.6Defence66.7
55.6Form50.0
51.0Power54.8
1.02xG1.11