Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Congo DR · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zimbabwe 1-2 Congo DR
Original prediction
Congo DR
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.94 | 18.4% | 32.1% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.9% | 28.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 52.6% | 39.3% | -13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Congo DR
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Congo DR has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZimbabweWWLWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Congo DRWLDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ZimbabweCongo DR
100.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power88.7
1.35xG1.28